Almanac calls for chillier autumn, snowier winter

Mark Twain is widely credited with the observation, “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.”

Well, each year about this time, the Farmer’s Almanac is what everybody’s talking about, because the 200-year-old publication is talking about the weather.

Nobody’s doing anything about it, still, but the Farmer’s Almanac is giving us a glimpse into our future weather, which keeps everybody talking.

It’s at this point that the conversation tends to go off the rails, if for no other reason than because the question is asked: The Old Farmer’s Almanac or the New Farmer’s Almanac? So what’s the difference? The “old” Farmer’s Almanac was founded in 1792, and the “new” one came along in 1818. Both endeavor to supply farmers with advance information about the weather and other related topics.

So what’s in store for eastern Oklahoma during the next six months?

Despite the summer broil we’ve had again this year, the Farmer’s Almanac extended forecast for fall foresees lower-than-usual temperatures nationwide. And if you’ve been wondering if you’ll even need to dig out the coats for the winter, the expectation is that the cold will really begin to take hold just after Thanksgiving and continue right through the remainder of the year, as well as into January and February.

Why is this happening? Two words: El Niño.

The World Meteorological Organization declared onset of El Niño conditions on July 4. The La Niña that was present during the past three winters is over.

El Niño years typically bring a more active storm track to the West Coast and the southern U.S., and this weather phenomena leads to a winter season which is snowier and colder than average across the U.S. and Canada.

This could be good news for much of the country.

Following the unusually wet and snowy winter across California despite the La Niña in place, a second wet winter would continue to help to replenish water supplies in parts of the West that have experienced longterm drought. So with El Niño now in place, winter weather is making a comeback. After a warm winter anomaly last year — the Farmer’s Almanac predicted a colder and snowier winter that never materialized — traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions are forecast to return to the contiguous United States.

While winter doesn’t officially start until Dec. 21, the cold conditions and snow don’t know how to read a calendar and won’t necessarily wait until then. After all, meteorological winter starts on Dec. 1, so that’s why the Farmer’s Almanac foresees a quite stormy December. The extended weather forecast calls for some blizzard conditions blowing snow into the usual northern regions, but also in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

But things may not get better after the first of the year. Unseasonably cold weather is forecast throughout January and February, with a possible major winter storm in mid-January, in Texas and the south central U.S., so Eastern Oklahoma isn’t in the clear.

While snow is generally not a major topic of conversation in Oklahoma, maybe it should be this winter. The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a good potential for snow — and ice storms — from December through January that may reach well into Oklahoma, followed by a sweep of bitterly cold air. Peter Geiger, editor of the “new” version, says to expect February to be “decidedly colder.”

While the forecast is not what is normally seen for Oklahoma, the weather outlook is better than most of the rest of the country, which could receive glacial snow and bitter cold temperatures.

Although early weather snippets for the next six months suggest bundling up, it’s a pretty good guess that by next summer, Oklahoma temperatures will be back in triple digits.

The latest version of the Farmers’ Almanac (not yet available) offers 16 months of weather prediction from September 2023 through December 2024.

But if you’re curious about how the methods used by the Farmer’s Almanac, you might have to remain so. The periodical’s website admits that “weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting, in particular, remains an inexact science,” despite the 200-year-old formula utilized.

The Farmer’s Almanac forecasts are admittedly broad and general — Geiger prefers simplistic — and often read like weather astrology, easily molded to the reader’s interpretation and usually dependent on the context of the preceding weather conditions.

Traditionally, the Almanac — either one — is about 80% correct, although many believe the accuracy is about 50-50 — about like flipping a coin.

So the Farmer’s Almanac prognostications notwithstanding, it’s possible Will Rogers was right when he remarked, “If you don’t like Oklahoma weather, just wait a minute.”