That $5,000 check from Elon Musk? Don’t spend it quite yet.

WASHINGTON — Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, claims American taxpayers could receive a $5,000 refund from the federal government —  despite no apparent support in Congress, which controls the nation’s purse strings.

Soon after Musk began floating the idea, President Donald Trump told investors at a conference in Miami on Feb. 19: “There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% goes to paying down debt, because the numbers are incredible, Elon.”

Musk and Trump’s statements excited Trump supporters on social media. “That would be a great START,” one X user under the moniker “MAGAmom” wrote.

Others online dismissed the claim as a “bad idea” and a “steaming pile of horses–t.”

Right-wing media outlet Newsmax wrote that the proposal is “meant to incentivize the public to report government waste.”

The U.S. DOGE Service Temporary Organization, established by Trump via executive order, was born out of Trump and Musk’s campaign promise to establish a Department of Government Efficiency with the goal of slashing up to $2 trillion in federal spending — an almost certainly unattainable figure that Musk has since walked back.

Who first talked about DOGE refund checks?

Musk, a senior White House adviser and Trump’s top reelection campaign donor, posted on Feb. 18 to his social media platform X that he would “check with the president” about returning government savings directly to taxpayers.

The proposal for a “DOGE Dividend” was suggested on X by an investment firm CEO who reportedly has advised Musk’s government savings project.

James Fishback, of the firm Azoria, shared a four-page plan, calculating that Musk and Trump could divide up 20% of $2 trillion in government savings for the roughly 79 million U.S. taxpaying households, ultimately sending about $5,000 to each one. The proposal only includes “net payers of federal income tax” in 2025, meaning that lower-income Americans would not see a refund.

Can Musk and Trump even find $2 trillion in savings?

“Not even close,” Matt Dallek, presidential and political historian at George Washington University, told States Newsroom during an interview Tuesday.

“You can save some money, but relative to the overall federal budget, you’re talking about a relative pittance,” Dallek said.

The Trump administration has so far fired thousands of federal workers, most probationary employees, though the exact figure is unclear. The White House, under Musk’s guidance, slashed any positions and contracts related to diversity initiatives, largely dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development and all but shut down the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau.

DOGE and the Trump administration have been met with protests and lawsuits for the temporary organization’s access to sensitive data and employment records that ultimately led to the firing of thousands of federal employees.

“These are kind of ideological targets that are not really designed to achieve real cost savings,” Dallek said.

The majority of federal spending goes to Social Security, Medicare  and defense, areas that Trump and lawmakers are reluctant to touch.

Democrats contend House Republicans’ latest budget proposal also targets Medicaid, a federal-state program that provides health care for low-income Americans. Trump has said he does not want to touch Medicaid benefits.

DOGE touts questionable savings

DOGE, which is not a federal department but rather an 18-month executive office project, claims on its website to have saved the government an estimated $65 billion through “fraud detection/deletion, contract/lease cancellations, contract/lease renegotiations, asset sales, grant cancellations, workforce reductions, programmatic changes, and regulatory savings.”

The New York Times reported Tuesday that DOGE deleted five of the biggest “savings” on the original list even as the sum climbed to $65 billion.

DOGE.gov features a “wall of receipts,” or entries that must be individually viewed to reveal claims, and sometimes screenshots, of what the temporary service organization claims to have slashed.

Entries purport DOGE cancelled access to news subscriptions and other resources for federal employees, nixed numerous contracts, and terminated leases for federal office spaces around the country.

“A lot of it is smoke and mirrors,” Dallek said.

“If you’re really trying to save the government money, why would you fire 7,000 IRS employees as tax season is approaching, which, you know, is going to hinder the ability of the IRS to collect the taxes that every year go unpaid?” he added.

An NPR analysis of more than 1,100 entries on the DOGE website found that the temporary organization fell way short of its savings claims. The analysis, published Feb. 19, calculated only $2 billion in actual savings.

Twenty-one employees resigned in protest from the U.S. DOGE Service Tuesday, according to The Associated Press. The department was previously the U.S. Digital Service, which handles government technology, before Trump renamed the agency.

Can Trump cut checks without Congress?

Americans have received refund or stimulus checks in recent history.

Both the first Trump administration and former President Joe Biden signed laws that included direct payments to households as part of the COVID-19 pandemic relief efforts.

Former President George W. Bush sent rebate checks to taxpayers as part of his tax plan, passed by Congress in 2001. And, as part of legislation to address the economic slowdown in 2008, Bush sent a round of stimulus checks.

While experts argue about the nuances of whether presidents can unilaterally direct spending via executive order, the Oval Office most likely cannot send direct payments to Americans without Congress appropriating the money, as it did in these previous cases.

“Trump and Musk are doing a lot of things that are likely illegal and or unconstitutional, and they’re still doing them. But if we live in the constitutional realities of what the Constitution says and what Congress’ power is, sending checks to people is not something (the administration) can do by fiat,” Dallek said.

The White House did not respond to a request for further details about sending direct payments to taxpayers.

Oklahoma Voice (oklahomavoice.com) is an affiliate of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization, supported by grants and donations. Oklahoma Voice provides nonpartisan reporting, and retains full editorial independence.